Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 69.1%
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto11 ott 25, 16:59 UTC1 gen 31, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Prospera breaks ground on an African charter city project before EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill 'Old Vegas' shut down the 51 Alpha prediction markets happy hour?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these AI companies will shut down first?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory.
- Three groups took them up on the offer and designed various interesting projects.
- In January, Honduras kicked out the right-wing government that passed the ZEDE law and replaced it with a socialist party led by Xiomara Castro, which had made opposition to the ZEDEs part of its platform.
- In April, the new government repealed the ZEDE law, with uncertain consequences." https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/model-city-monday-62722
- Update 2025-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if "officially shutting down" occurs through any of the following scenarios:
- Honduran government passing actual laws making ZEDE void, rescinds all special autonomy, and legal regimes (requires constitutional amendment?)
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Volume totale
- 19,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 210,9K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 altri esiti
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 69% al 19 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030??
- Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will Próspera (charter city) be officially shut down before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Background: "The story so far: in the mid 2010s, Honduras passed a first-in-the-world law saying that private actors could apply to run charter cities / special economic zones (ZEDEs) on Honduran territory.