Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualePerplexity 37.6%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto3 nov 25, 14:52 UTC31 dic 35, 14:48 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which gaming companies will shut down by end 2030?
Manifold MarketsOut of these AI researchers, who is the smartest?
Manifold MarketsWhat are the probabilities of these AI outcomes (X-risk, dystopias, utopias, in-between outcomes, status quo outcomes)?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
PolymarketAnthropic’s valuation end of October 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to whichever company among OpenAI, Anthropic, Perplexity, or xAI ceases operations first due to bankruptcy, insolvency, or permanent shutdown.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the company, SEC filings, or major news reports from established financial media outlets (Bloomberg, Reuters, CNBC, Financial Times).
- If multiple companies shut down simultaneously, the market resolves to the one that filed for bankruptcy or made the shutdown announcement first.
- OpenAI closed a $40 billion Series F funding round at a $300 billion valuation in April 2025, and achieved a $500B valuation milestone in October 2025.
- Anthropic raised $13 billion in Series F funding as of September 2025. xAI closed a $10 billion debt and equity fundraise in July 2025.
Mercati aperti
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+0.6pt93%
- Yes-0.6pt7%
- Volume totale
- 19,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 210,9K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.0pt80%
- December 15,-4.5pt78%
- November 30,-16.5pt61%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt90%
- Before Mar 1, 202786%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+2.0pt86%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,9 Mln €
KALSHIWho will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Paramount+16.0pt96.9%
- None before July 2027-16.0pt2.1%
- Netflix-2.0pt1%
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt24.8%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-1.0pt20.8%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-4.0pt16.8%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt68%
- Before May 1, 2027+6.0pt50%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt46%
+8 altri esiti
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Florida State vs Alabama
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- LSU vs Ole Miss
- Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which of these AI companies will shut down first??
- Manifold Markets quota Perplexity al 38% al 19 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which of these AI companies will shut down first??
- Which of these AI companies will shut down first? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2035.
- Come viene liquidato Which of these AI companies will shut down first??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria