Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 76%
Sì 76%Previsori
74
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto24 mar 23, 01:08 UTC1 gen 30, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill polling show that a majority of American adults believe Oswald "acted alone" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
Manifold MarketsMulti year market: Will AI be as big a political issue as abortion?
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Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
For this market to resolve "YES":
- We need three major polls with a >50% "yes" response to some variant of the question "Do you feel AI is a threat to the human race" (not just to jobs).
- We need to see at least one such poll in three different OECD countries, and one of those has to be the United States.
- If we don't see three such polls before 2030, this market resolves NO.
