Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will nuclear powers fight in orbit before EOY2050??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 51% al 26 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will nuclear powers fight in orbit before EOY2050??

Will nuclear powers fight in orbit before EOY2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2049.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 51%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 22 ore fa

Obsoleto

19 gen 26, 18:20 UTC31 dic 49, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolution criteria

To date, there have been no human casualties resulting from conflict in space, nor has any ground target been successfully neutralised from orbit.
This market resolves YES if nuclear-armed states engage in direct military conflict in Earth orbit before January 1, 2050.
This includes kinetic attacks (satellite destruction), electronic warfare, jamming, or any other hostile action between nuclear powers' space assets.
The conflict must involve deliberate hostile action by at least two nuclear-armed states' space systems against each other.
Accidental collisions, debris impacts, or unilateral tests do not qualify.