Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 71.9%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto24 mag 23, 18:03 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Germany legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?
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Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRegole
Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.
- New Zealand currently has this system (since 2012)
- The market would resolve YES if the law stays the same until 2033
Mercati aperti
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+3.0pt77%
- New People (NL)-1.9pt20%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.3pt2%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 27,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 922,4K €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff+1.0pt17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 191,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 684,3K €
KALSHITexas Senate winner?
- James Talarico+4.0pt56.4%
- Ken Paxton-3.0pt43.6%
- Volume totale
- 11,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 625,2K €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party88%
- Republican Party-1.0pt12%
- Volume totale
- 28 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 616,3K €
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027+1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt5%
- September 30,+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt16%
+48 altri esiti
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- Nebraska Senate winner?
- United Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 72% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033??
- Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2033.
- Come viene liquidato Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.