Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.3%
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27
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto6 mar 26, 04:46 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the United States pass federal legislation regulating AI in 2026?
Manifold MarketsConditional on a negative consequence of AI that shocks governments into regulating AI occurring, what will it be?
Manifold MarketsWhat AI regulations will the US Congress pass into law before January 3, 2027? [ADD ANSWERS]
Manifold Markets🏛️ Will US Congress pass a law that substantially preempts state AI regulation before January 1, 2027? 🏛️
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if S-7263 passes within 2026.
- Resolves YES if that bill is substantively included in another bill or package that passes this year as well, or if it’s resubmitted under a different number.
- Generally, I will attempt to resolve in the spirit of this question, not the explicit letter of these criteria.
- S-7263 is a bill seeking to regulate AIs giving medical/legal/professional advice, allowing people to sue chatbot owners who violate this ban.
- If S-7263 is substantially amended to the point that it is in my estimation no longer substantively similar to its current form (let’s say, 80% less potent or different from its current form) then this will resolve NO.
- In gray areas, I may resolve to PROB, judging from a consensus of credible reporting and feedback from other Manifold moderators.