Will Mitch McConnell's Senate seat be vacant Christmas Eve 2026?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezioneElezioni di metà mandato USA 20262m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 09:27 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 86.3%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto3 lug 26, 19:16 UTC24 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves based on
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on December 24, 2026 (Christmas Eve), Mitch McConnell's Class II U.S. Senate seat representing Kentucky is officially vacant.
- It will resolve to NO if the seat is occupied by Mitch McConnell or any successor who has been officially sworn in to fill the seat by that date.
- A vacancy exists if Mitch McConnell has died, resigned, been expelled, or otherwise officially vacated his office before December 24, 2026, and no successor has been officially sworn in and seated in the U.S. Senate to replace him by 11:59 PM EST on December 24, 2026.
- If Mitch McConnell remains the sitting Senator for Kentucky as of December 24, 2026, this market will resolve to NO.