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If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat?

PoliticaOne-OffUS Politics Elezione3m

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 68.4%

Previsori

31

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 14 ore fa

Obsoleto

3 lug 26, 20:28 UTC3 gen 27, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Mercati Correlati

Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.

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Regole

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve based on the following conditions:
YES: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027, AND Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear officially appoints a registered Democrat to fill the vacancy.
An official appointment is defined as Governor Beshear signing an executive order or certificate of appointment naming a registered Democrat, regardless of whether that appointment is subsequently challenged, blocked by courts, or if the individual is successfully seated in the U.S. Senate.
NO: If Mitch McConnell vacates his U.S. Senate seat before January 3, 2027, but Governor Beshear does not officially appoint a registered Democrat (e.g., if he appoints a Republican, an Independent, or makes no interim appointment at all, allowing the vacancy to proceed directly to an election).
N/A: If Mitch McConnell does not vacate his U.S. Senate seat before his term ends on January 3, 2027.

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Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: Manifold Markets quota No al 68% al 8 settembre 2026.
Quando si risolve If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat? dovrebbe risolversi il 3 gennaio 2027.
Come viene liquidato If Mitch McConnell vacates his senate seat before the term ends, will Andy Beshear appoint a Democrat to the seat??: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

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