Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 92.5%
Previsori
71
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto24 mar 23, 05:16 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a misaligned AI kill 1% of the world population within any 12 month period before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill the AI Kill Switch Act pass the US House of Representatives before Feb 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.
- If I am dead then Manifold can resolve based on Lesswrong community sentiment or a poll with a 30% threshold.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ahalekelly/will-misaligned-ai-kill-50-of-the-h-53baa02e69ba)
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 93% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2039.
- Come viene liquidato Will misaligned AI kill >50% of humanity before 2040??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves Yes if >50% of humanity's population is killed in a 12 month time period and I think it >30% likely that the root cause was misaligned AI.