Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027?
One-OffMiddle EastGeopolitica3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 55.7%
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14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto3 apr 26, 19:40 UTC1 gen 27, 00:00 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, as of 12:00 PM UTC on January 1st, 2027, the government of Iran or entities acting under its authority (such as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) are actively requiring or enforcing the payment of tolls for the passage of commercial vessels through any part of the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market will resolve to NO if such a regime is not in effect at that time.
- Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible international reporting (e.g., major news outlets like Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, or maritime industry monitors like Lloyd's List Intelligence).
- Clear evidence of a functional, officially sanctioned, or de facto toll collection system—where passage is conditioned upon payment—will satisfy the criteria for a YES.
- The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027??
- Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran still be charging tolls in the strait of hermuz on January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria