Will Iran experience political change before September 2026?
PoliticaOne-OffIntrattenimentoMusicMiddle East1mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 19 lug 2026, 20:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2
Previsione della comunità attualeSì 27.4%In testa tra 4 esiti
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6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 giorni fa
Obsoleto17 lug 26, 22:1931 ago 26, 23:59
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes27%
Trend del volume
$2517 lug3g di dati19 lug
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:
- Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.
- Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).
- Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).
- If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.