Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 72.7%
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto11 apr 26, 16:42 UTC31 mar 27, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill India become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
PolymarketRegole
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Iran's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.
- If the report is paywalled, I may resolve to a secondary source such as Wikipedia.
- If Iran's democracy score for 2026 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
- @/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit-2R20yhg9dh
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-us-become-more-authoritari
- 🇺🇸 @/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more-QNC56OL95y
Mercati aperti
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 473K €
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.6pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.1pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 altri esiti
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 2027-1.0pt14%
- December-1.0pt7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- UNRWA+0.5pt8%
- International Court of Justice-1.0pt6%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUnited Russia seats in the next Russian legislative election?
- 325–339-0.5pt37.1%
- 340–354+2.0pt24.7%
- 310–324-5.0pt22.7%
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change-1.0pt68.7%
- Decrease+1.5pt28.3%
- Increase-1.3pt3%
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 73% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 marzo 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Iran's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2027) compared to the last report.