Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 51.9%
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto25 mag 25, 20:34 UTC31 dic 27, 21:32 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the OpenAI hardware device be a portable puck that sees, speaks, and moves?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.
- Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028.
- Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further.
- Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume totale
- 225,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 157K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 348,3K €
- Volume 24h
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 52% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.