Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 63.9%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo28 gen 24, 17:54 UTC2 gen 61, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a year in outer space?
Manifold Marketswill human ever live outside the solar system before the 22nd century?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegole
Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)
- Must be achieved before 2061
- Humans do not need to step foot on a solid object in the Outer Solar System, but must enter orbit around a celestial object in that region (gas giant planets or asteroid)
Mercati aperti
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 64% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns??
- Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2061.
- Come viene liquidato Will humans visit the Outer Solar System before Halley's Comet returns??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Must be a manned mission to the Outer Solar System (beyond orbit of Jupiter)