Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 73%
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Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto15 mar 23, 14:15 UTC1 gen 31, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
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Will humans intentionally create a global AI winter, slowing or pausing AI development? This would include government policies, coordination among major AI developers, intentional destruction of resources (legal or illegal), or any other action intended specifically to plateau (or regress) AI development.
- The resolution of this will necessarily be subjective, but significant actions with the intent of pausing AI development happening in conjunction of an apparent pause in increasing AI capabilities of at least 12 months will resolve this YES.