Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 58.5% al 28 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search??

Will humanity achieve AGI before good desktop search? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2040.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 58.5%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 35 minuti fa

19 nov 24, 20:35 UTC2 gen 40, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This market will resolve to determine if we develop an artificial general intelligence (AGI) before desktop search becomes good.

I'll use common sense definitions for “Good Desktop Search” and AGI.
In the case they happen pretty much at the same time, the market will be decided according to the following rules:
If AGI was necessary to develop good desktop search, the market will resolve to yes.
If good desktop search becomes available on Mac OS or Windows and does not use AGI as a component or substantial subsystem, the market will resolve to no.
The end date is set for January 1st, 2040. as a daily user of AI products and terrible desktop search I'll keep my eye on this one personally