Previsione della comunità attuale
No 92.1%
Previsori
28
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto30 mar 25, 10:39 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Magnus Carlsen play a classical game against Hans Niemann before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiTitled Tuesday Winner: Sep 8
KalshiRegole
Derivative of this question, using the same criteria (except for the date):
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/tempo/will-hans-niemann-be-a-top-10-chess?play=true)If the linked question resolves YES at any time before the end of market close, this market resolves YES.
- If the market closes and the conditions for the linked question are not fulfilled, resolves NO.
- Since this is a very objective market, I will bet on it.
- Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The December 2026 FIDE rating list will be the definitive source for resolution, even if it is published after the market closes (e.g., in January 2027).
- If it is clear Hans will not be in the top 10 by the end of 2026, the market may resolve NO immediately at its close time.
Mercati aperti
ChessPOLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Romania?
- Alexandru Nazare-4.3pt25%
- Sorin Grindeanu-1.6pt20%
- Eugen Tomac-5.7pt7%
+33 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 3,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 18K €
KALSHIPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+4.0pt44.5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+2.0pt24.4%
- Naftali Bennett+1.0pt6.7%
+15 altri esiti
KALSHIFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
- Javokhir Sindarov+1.0pt66.7%
- Gukesh Dommaraju-4.0pt26.7%
- Fabiano Caruana0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHITitled Tuesday Winner: Sep 8
- Liem Le99%
- Hans Niemann+73.0pt79%
- Alireza Firouzja+18.0pt19%
+66 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 13,5K €
KALSHITitled Tuesday Top 8: Sep 8
- Jeffery Xiong+81.0pt99%
- Hikaru Nakamura+54.0pt99%
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda+72.0pt99%
+66 altri esiti
KALSHITitled Tuesday Top 5: Sep 8
- Hikaru Nakamura+78.0pt99%
- Hans Niemann+82.0pt98%
- Dmitry Andreikin+92.0pt98%
+66 altri esiti
- Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
- Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- Titled Tuesday Top 3: Sep 8
- Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?
- 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Women's Tournament Winner
- Titled Tuesday Top 8: September 15
- Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
- Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?
- FIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in December 2026
- Titled Tuesday Top 5: September 15
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 92% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026??
- Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Derivative of this question, using the same criteria (except for the date):