Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets quota No al 90.8% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2028.

Come viene liquidato Will "Gemma Needs Help" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.5pt94%
• December 15,+9.5pt91%
• November 30,+28.5pt89%

+15 altri esiti

Volume totale

5,3 Mln €

Volume 24h

319,2K €

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+61.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+2.5pt29.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.5pt23.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.5pt16.5%

+7 altri esiti

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.9pt60%
• Gemini30.1%
• ChatGPT-0.3pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt57.6%
• Google-1.0pt33.3%
• OpenAI+0.3pt6.1%

+12 altri esiti

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• Best AI this week
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?