Will "Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffTecnologiaIASocietà e cultura1aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.6%
Previsori
2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto10 giu 26, 18:58 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsEliezer Yudkowsky irrelevant by 2030
Manifold MarketsWill "Increasing returns to effort are common" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsLeague City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Even "illegible" Mythos reasoning traces seem pretty legible is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.