Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030??

Manifold Markets quota No al 94.2% al 26 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030??

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

No 94.2%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 22 ore fa

Obsoleto

25 set 23, 00:20 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.

Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.