Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffIATecnologia3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 59.4%
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3
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto18 ago 26, 03:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Regole
Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 59% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.