Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 87.7%
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto3 feb 26, 00:45 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Claude Sonnet (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Sonnet 4.6 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Sonnet 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Sonnet's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill "Claude Sonnet 3.7 (often) knows when it’s in ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Benchmark is here: https://scale.com/leaderboard/scipredict.
- It tests models' ability to predict the results of scientific experiments.
- As of writing, current SOTA is Gemini 3 Pro's 25.27%.
