Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91%
Previsori
45
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto5 gen 26, 23:38 UTC31 dic 26, 12:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Republicans win any Senate or Governor's Election in a Biden-Trump state?
PolymarketWill Biden or Trump die from natural causes before the end of the next presidential term?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Die before 2027
Manifold MarketsWill Trump Die in 2026?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump are confirmed by consensus of credible reporting to be deceased by 11:59pm ET, December 31st 2026.
- Resolves YES if both die.
- Resolves NO if neither do.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 693K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,1 Mln €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9K €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume totale
- 12,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 248,7K €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026??
- Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Biden OR Trump die in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Donald Trump are confirmed by consensus of credible reporting to be deceased by 11:59pm ET, December 31st 2026.