Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 55.3%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
17 giu 26, 07:17 UTC11 set 26, 12:25 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Core inflation in August 2026 (Core CPI YoY)
KalshiWill August 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill September 2026 headline CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsWill November 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month?
Manifold MarketsCore CPI MoM - August 2026
PolymarketWill the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
ForecastExRegole
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that core CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.
- Use the all-items less food and energy Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), BLS series CUSR0000SA0L1E, and the seasonally adjusted percent change from July 2026 to August 2026 in the first BLS August 2026 CPI release.
- Resolve NO if that seasonally adjusted month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower.
- Do not use headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE, PPI, not-seasonally-adjusted monthly change, real earnings, or later annual revisions unless BLS corrects the initial August 2026 release before resolution.
- If the August 2026 CPI release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release of the August 2026 figure unless there is no BLS August 2026 CPI release by September 18, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"core_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.2, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_mom_sa": 0.5, "headline_cpi_u_may_2026_yoy": 4.2, "note": "At creation time, June/July/August 2026 CPI releases were still future releases.
- The latest official CPI release available was May 2026.", "release": "Consumer Price Index, May 2026"}, "metric": "Seasonally adjusted all-items less food and energy CPI-U percent change from July 2026 to August 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May, June, and July 2026 CPI markets are different reference-month markets.", "Headline CPI, year-over-year CPI, PCE inflation, PPI, and real-earnings markets are not duplicates.", "Calendar-year inflation markets are not duplicates of a single-month core CPI-U MoM threshold."], "release_schedule": "BLS's CPI release schedule lists the August 2026 reference month for Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:30 Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026", "series": "CUSR0000SA0L1E", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official BLS pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation; BLS pages can return HTTP 403 or time out from raw Python requests on this host.", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
Mercati aperti
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 541,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 30,7K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 334,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 12,8K €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 77,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,5K €
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 55% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month? dovrebbe risolversi il 11 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will August 2026 core CPI-U rise at least 0.3% month-over-month??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Consumer Price Index release for August 2026 reports that core CPI-U rose 0.3% or more month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.