Will at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
Salute e medicinaOne-OffMeteo13aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 90.9%
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19
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto30 mag 24, 17:25 UTC2 gen 40, 04:59 UTC
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Roger Hallam has claimed "12 per cent of the population of Phoenix, Arizona will die of extreme heat in the 2030s." Market resolves yes if extreme heat is credibly the cause of "you can predict 180,000 deaths during the 2030s - ie., 12% of the population dies from heat during that decade." Will by default rely on medical examiner's office records used by Hallam to anchor his projection; I reserve the right to judge by my best guess if a heat event happens that kills so many that the medical examiner is overwhelmed or similar.
- Caveat: in awful edge-case scenarios where Phoenix gets nuked or firebombed by aerial bombardment, that doesn't count as extreme heat, and I probably NA cancel this market out of sadness and disgust at the world.
- https://twitter.com/RogerHallamCS21/status/1795734145223545338
