Quali sono le probabilità attuali per How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033??

Manifold Markets quota >= 300 al 75% al 28 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033??

How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 luglio 2034.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

>= 300 75%

In testa tra 8 esiti

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Variazione 7g

0.0 pts

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 7 ore fa

Obsoleto

31 mag 24, 04:36 UTC2 lug 34, 05:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:

[tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme-nunsfre4wz