Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 14:52 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
>= 100 95%In testa tra 7 esiti
>= 100 95%Previsori
16
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto2 giu 24, 20:04 UTC2 lug 27, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 12% of the population of Phoenix, Arizona die of extreme heat in the 2030s ?
Manifold MarketsWill 2,500+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsWill 10,000+ people die of heat in Texas in a single week before 2032?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
