Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 07:20 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attuale
No 71.2%
Previsori
26
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto2 feb 24, 05:44 UTC2 gen 50, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsDid HIV come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
