Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 59.6% al 30 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050??

Will the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2050.

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 59.6%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 2 ore fa

Obsoleto

2 feb 24, 05:44 UTC2 gen 50, 07:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.0°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.