Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050??

Manifold Markets quota No al 93.6% al 30 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050??

Will the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2050.

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 37 minuti fa

2 feb 24, 18:28 UTC2 gen 50, 07:59 UTC

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Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.