Will Argentina successfully regain sovereignty over the Falklands by the end of 2027?
America LatinaOne-Off1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 97.2%
No 97.2%Previsori
27
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto24 gen 24, 18:29 UTC1 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
Milei's new administration has reiterated his desire to regain the Falklands as Argentine possessions (spanish announcement here).
- Given he's outright ruled out the use of force (as he correctly observed that didn't go well last time), he's announced he intends to explore "all diplomatic channels."
- This market resolves YES if the Falklands have returned to Argentine possession by the close date, or if an official agreement has been ratified between Britain and Argentina about transferring sovereignty of the islands to Argentina on some fixed timeline.
- This remains a YES even if there are some caveats to that sovereignty, so long as the international community recognizes the islands as being Argentine territory.
- I reserve the right to adjudicate edge cases of this sort by my own sole opinion.
- It resolves NO if the Falklands remain a British possession at market close, or if some other country has taken them over.