Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 3% or more and lose?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione1m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 51%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ott 26, 08:14 UTC30 nov 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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ForecastExRegole
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 3.00% or more and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
