Will any of OpenAI’s massive release of mathematical results be shown to be flawed by the end of November?
IAOne-Off
Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (99%)
Risolto: 8 ott 2026, 11:37
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Yes
A 7 giorni
—
A 24 ore
37%
SorpresaAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 8 ott 2026, 21:51 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes99%
No1%
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PolymarketRegole
[tweet]YES if, by November 30, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments, theorems, or proofs in OpenAI's GitHub repo is fatally flawed or incorrect.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- "Flawed" means a core mathematical or theoretical error is identified that invalidates the main result of the paper, and the error is either unfixable or difficult to patch.
- Nitpicks—such as minor typos, formatting errors, minor translation gaps in the Lean formalization that do not undermine the mathematical proof's validity, or easily patchable edge cases—do not count toward a YES resolution.
- The flaw has to be in the repo as it is released today - later hotfixes don’t remove an eligible flaw, but later additions don’t count either.