Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 56.2%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
22 mag 25, 18:16 UTC31 dic 28, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegole
https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker
- I'm expecting Nate to repeat this test.
- If he doesn't even try, this resolves NO.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified conditions regarding tool usage by the LLM, in line with Nate Silver's post about testing for general intelligence:
- The LLM must not use tools specifically designed for poker (e.g., dedicated poker solvers).
- The LLM may use generic tools, such as the ability to write and execute Python scripts.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 56% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028??
- Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker