Will any 2028 presidential primary or caucus winner have publicly backed a universal basic income since 2025?
Politica commercialeOne-OffPoliticaPolitica USAElezione1a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 78.2%
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Resolves YES if at least one person who wins a 2028 Democratic or Republican presidential primary or caucus publicly supported a universal basic income between January 1, 2025 and the date of that win.
- Any statewide presidential preference primary or caucus in the 50 states or DC counts, whether run by the state or a state party, binding or not, sanctioned by the national party or not.
- A person wins by placing first among named candidates on any official statewide count (popular vote, a caucus's first or final alignment, or delegates or state delegate equivalents).
- If "uncommitted" or "none of these candidates" places first on a count, nobody wins that count.
- Otherwise it resolves NO after the last such contest.
- Supported a UBI means the candidate said they favor enacting a recurring federal cash payment to all or nearly all adults with no income or work test.
