Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 73.6%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto30 apr 24, 14:16 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
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PolymarketRegole
Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.
- Linked Questions:
- by 2025: https://manifold.markets/RationalHippy/will-an-autonomous-agent-resolve-90
- by 2026: https://manifold.markets/RationalHippy/will-an-autonomous-agent-resolve-90-46de94321b3f
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
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KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 74% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027??
- Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will an autonomous agent resolve 90% of tasks on SWE-bench by 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves "Yes" if, at time of closure, there is an entry on the SWE-bench leaderboard (https://www.swebench.com/) with score greater or equal to 90%.