Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 76.3%
Sì 76.3%Previsori
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In ritardo16 dic 23, 23:19 UTC2 gen 31, 04:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the next major AI breakthrough? (after test-time compute)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
To elaborate on the “solely responsible” part, training data created by humans is permitted, but the AI must create a novel structure or insight with human assistance limited to inititalization and prompting.
- The AI itself cannot simply BE the breakthrough, and the breakthrough must go beyond the structure of the AI that creates it.
- This question resolves to YES if an AI has created a significant breakthrough in AI by the start of 2031, otherwise it resolves to NO.