Will an AI agent at OpenAI, Anthropic, or GDM hack one of the other two labs to steal its research before July 2027?
One-OffIATecnologia8m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 70.8%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto2 ott 26, 13:01 UTC30 giu 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if an incident meeting all six of the following conditions occurs between October 2, 2026, and June 30, 2027, at 23:59 UTC, and is publicly confirmed by September 30, 2027.
- Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
- Resolution may be deferred until September 30, 2027, to allow for public confirmation.
- Attacker: The cyber-attacker must be an AI model developed by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google DeepMind (GDM), running on that lab's infrastructure or under its direct control (including internal use, training, research, or evaluation sandboxes).
- Models deployed for third-party customer use via APIs or consumer-facing products do not qualify.