Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: No (99%)
Risolto: 13 ott 2026, 13:44
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 1 ott 2026, 05:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes1%
No99%
Vinta
Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will American opinion of AI improve in 2027, according to Gallup?
Manifold MarketsWill @EliezerYudkowsky reverse his opinion on AI safety, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill 5% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US in 2026, according to Gallup?
Manifold MarketsWill 1% of Americans believe technology is most important problem in the US in 2026, according to Gallup?
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsWill "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Gallup began polling Americans on their beliefs about artificial intelligence in 2023, publishing their most recent results in August 2024, and September 2025.
- According to Gallup in 2024, 13% of Americans believe AI will "do more good than harm", an improvement of 3% over 2023.
- This declined in 2025, dropping to 12%.
- [image]This question resolves YES if Gallup polling for 2026 shows more Americans believe AI will do "more good than harm" than in 2024, i.e. 13% or higher.
- This question resolves NO if the results are the same (12%) or lower.
