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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:03 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 83.8%
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ago 23, 20:31 UTC1 gen 30, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe humanity by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegole
Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.
- There must be at least one human opponent for it to count.
- The competition must have some degree of officialness to it, like an organization putting on the competition. "I held a competition in my basement, and the AI won" doesn't count.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a competition is "official" (I may make the criteria for officialness more precise based on suggestions in the comments).
- If I can't find any example of an AI winning a competition like this by 2030, resolves NO.
- If an AI has already won a competition like this, that counts for a YES resolution, too.
