Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
In 2030 or earlier 55%In testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
75
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto26 gen 24, 09:59 UTC2 gen 28, 22:59 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Manifold Markets quota In 2030 or earlier al 55% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI cause an incident resulting in $1b of losses or 100 lost lives??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.