Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%In testa tra 7 esiti
In 2030 or earlier 50.6%Previsori
79
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-4.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo26 gen 24, 09:59 UTC2 gen 28, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Internationally active financial institution experiences AI-assisted cyberattack resulting in losses >$1B before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause a decline in university enrolment by 2027 in the UK?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause mass unemployment... by 2030 ?
Manifold MarketsWill AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
With AI models becoming more powerful, they are starting to be used in more and more high-stakes scenarios.
- This means that an AI mistake could have significant consequences.
- In this question I'm considering situations in which AI actions are directly causing an incident, accident or catastrophe resulting in $1 billion of damages.
- If the event causes loss of life, each death counts as $10 million of damages.
- The incident should be a direct consequence of the AI's decisions, actions or output.
- It should not have happened if the AI wasn't involved.
