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3 mar 24, 23:11 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
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Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill any of the Magic: The Gathering "culturally insensitive cards" be reprinted or unbanned by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves to Yes if an AI has the strength to beat world champions in Magic the Gathering before the end of 2026
- If AI were able to beat the world champion in any one of the major format, Draft, Constructed or Sealed, it would count as a resolve Yes.
- The AI doesnt have to actually be participating in the world championship (it likely would not), but as long as the AI demonstrated consistent strength in beating current world champion in repeated games (70% win rate with 10+ games played) that would count as a Yes.
- AI doesn't necessarily have to beat the current world champion.
- Beating any of the top 20 in the world within past 3 years is sufficient.
- The goal is to demonstrate that the AI has the strength to likely win against the world champion.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
- 224,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
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- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
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- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 95% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026??
- Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to Yes if an AI has the strength to beat world champions in Magic the Gathering before the end of 2026