Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own?
IAOne-OffTecnologia3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 65.5%
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Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto3 set 26, 04:14 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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On September 1–2, 2026, OpenAI published "Path to Astra," stating that its upcoming Astra model can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.
- It is the first model any lab has affirmatively described this way.
- This market asks whether a second developer says it before the year ends.
- Resolves YES if: between market creation and 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, an AI developer other than OpenAI publicly and affirmatively states that one of its models has either:
- (a) reached the top cybersecurity or cyber-offense capability tier under that company's own published risk framework (e.g. Google DeepMind announcing a model reached its cyberattack Critical Capability Level, or Anthropic announcing a cyber capability threshold requiring its highest safeguards); or
- (b) regardless of tier labels or frameworks, become capable of all four of the following together: discovering previously unknown vulnerabilities, developing functional working exploits for them, against hardened or well-protected real-world systems, without a human directing each step.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 66% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own??
- Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a second AI lab say one of its models can find and exploit unknown security flaws on its own??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: On September 1–2, 2026, OpenAI published "Path to Astra," stating that its upcoming Astra model can find previously unknown security flaws and develop ways to exploit them across many well-protected systems without a person guiding each step.