will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 17:03 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
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Obsoleto22 feb 25, 06:12 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
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PolymarketRegole
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
