will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author?
IAOne-OffTecnologia4aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 77.5%
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto22 feb 25, 06:12 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
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PolymarketRegole
I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.
- I'll write a list below, but if there are labs that aren't on the list but plausibly could be considered frontier, I'll make a manifold poll and rule based on the markets decision.
- Also please comment if you think I've missed one:
- DeepMind/Google
- Alibaba (NOTE: this used to say Qwen, but Qwen is the name of the model, not the lab)
- XAI (Elon musk lab)
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 78% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2030.
- Come viene liquidato will a paper released *before 2030* by a frontier AI lab have one of their AIs as a co-author??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I'd like a concrete list of "frontier labs", but don't want to exclude newcomers.