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Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Regolamentazione IAOne-OffTecnologia3m

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 86.6%

Previsori

13

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 6 ore fa

Obsoleto

18 mar 26, 16:26 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Mercati Correlati

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Regole

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a major tech company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion) publicly announces a pause or meaningful limitation on AI development activities due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027.
The announcement must explicitly cite safety as the primary reason and involve a concrete action (e.g., halting training of specific models, delaying product releases, or reducing AI R&D investment).
Statements about "prioritizing safety" or implementing safety measures without pausing development do not qualify.
Resolution sources include official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets.
As of July 2024, a pause on AI development has not been realized—instead, AI companies have directed "vast investments in infrastructure to train ever-more giant AI systems".

Mercati aperti

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Volume totale

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When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

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+5 altri esiti

Domande frequenti

Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027??: Manifold Markets quota Yes al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
Quando si risolve Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027??: Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
Come viene liquidato Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027??: Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria

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