Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31?
RegolamentazioneOne-OffIAEuropeTecnologiaChessSport3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 65%
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto16 lug 26, 01:51 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.
- Audit Motion 002
- Will at least one frontier AI company publish recurring organizational governance metrics alongside capability benchmarks, in a single document, on or before 31 December 2026?
- Research Thesis
- This prediction tests whether frontier AI governance will evolve from policy disclosure toward performance disclosure.
- Frontier AI companies now routinely publish governance frameworks, responsible scaling policies, and regulatory compliance documents.
Mercati aperti
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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- Yes-2.0pt14%
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
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+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
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KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
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- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
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KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,4 Mln €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 altri esiti
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31??
- Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will a frontier AI lab publish recurring governance metrics with capability benchmarks in one document by 2026-12-31??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Market title abbreviated for character limit; the full operative title and all binding definitions are in this description.