Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNeither by end of 2035 47%In testa tra 3 esiti
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8
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto1 giu 26, 14:10 UTC31 dic 35, 23:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWill China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit?
Manifold MarketsWho will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
- "USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
- A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
- Resolved by launch date.
- If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.