Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeTerran R 36.5%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto13 feb 26, 08:11 UTC1 gen 30, 08:11 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX come up with new ways to send stuff into space that do not involve rockets by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship Orbit in 2023? (No) → SpaceX Mars Mission by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a 1-megawatt data center go live in orbit?
KalshiAST SpaceMobile BlueBird satellites in orbit above __ in Q4 2026?
LimitlessWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurRegole
https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20
- The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
- Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
- Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), the named outcome is scheduled for the second half of 2026, the named outcome is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
- Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
- Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.
Mercati aperti
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.4pt9%
- Google-0.7pt2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 89,7K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Volume totale
- 101,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 26,2K €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.5pt16.7%
- Google+0.5pt7.8%
+18 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.6pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,5K €
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which of these rockets will reach orbit first??
- Manifold Markets quota Terran R al 37% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which of these rockets will reach orbit first??
- Which of these rockets will reach orbit first? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Which of these rockets will reach orbit first??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20