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  1. Mercati Predittivi
  2. Space
  3. Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold Markets

Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?

CustomSpaceScienzaTecnologia3a
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSenza KYC
Previsione della comunità attuale
Manifold Markets
Nova 15.7%
In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori

5

Tipo di domanda

multiple choice

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 9 giorni fa

Obsoleto
13 feb 26, 8:111 gen 30, 8:11

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Esito scelto

Nova16%

Regole

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.

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Attivi in questi argomenti

BitcoinBTC$65,893.78+2.13%SolanaSOL$71.19+3.28%EthereumETH$1,720.05+2.29%DogecoinDOGE$0.0889+1.00%BNBBNB$617.66+1.30%XRPXRP$1.19+2.88%

Notizie Correlate

Ethereum can quantum-proof accounts for just 7 cents, says Ethereum's Kohaku leadCointelegraphEthereum researcher says $0.07 can add post-quantum account protectionCrypto NewsGoogle Unveils Gemini 3.5 and AI Upgrades at I/O 2026Blockchain.NewsNvidia may power Apple’s biggest Siri upgrade after years of delayCrypto NewsBig tech is 'terrified' of AI agents wiping out ad revenue, says Billions Network CEOCoindeskModern robots impress, but are years away from replacing humansCointelegraph

Regole

https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/2022101432066093330?s=20

Manifold Markets
  • The market resolves to whichever rocket achieves orbital velocity first.
  • Resolution is determined by the first successful orbital insertion, defined as reaching a stable orbit around Earth with apogee and perigee both above 100 km altitude.
  • Neutron's first launch is targeted for 2026 (no earlier than Q1), Terran R is scheduled for the second half of 2026, Rocket 4 is planned for summer 2026, and Nova is under development at Cape Canaveral.
  • Resolution will be based on official announcements from the respective companies and confirmed by credible space industry sources (SpaceNews, NASASpaceflight, Space.com, or official company statements).
  • Rocket Lab's Neutron aims to reach orbit on its first flight, a challenging objective for new vehicle architectures.