Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeFalcon Heavy 100%In testa tra 40 esiti
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27
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+43.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto3 feb 26, 15:57 UTC31 dic 26, 15:15 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Which of these rockets will reach orbit first?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves to all correct answers.
- Either the payload or the uppermost stage must be reported to reach orbit*.
- Feel free to suggest additions; I will add them, but there should be at least some question about whether or not a launch will happen in 2026 (am more happy to entertain speculation on the unlikely to launch end)
- *Starship near-orbits don't count
Mercati aperti
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+65.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-29.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-6.0pt1%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 622,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 579,5K €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+41.0pt99%
- Houston+62.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+4.0pt99%
+19 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 604,7K €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $75,000 or above99%
- $74,750 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 411,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 411,6K €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt33.3%
- 160-179+5.0pt28.6%
- 200-219-4.0pt15.2%
+23 altri esiti
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $73,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
+47 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+25.0pt87.3%
- 65-89-10.0pt12.8%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 altri esiti
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
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- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Next James Bond actor?
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Falcon Heavy al 100% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026??
- Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Which of these rockets will reach orbit in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves to all correct answers.