Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeGPT (OpenAI) 80.9%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto21 nov 25, 02:02 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
Resolves to whoever releases a model with the highest version number in the name, including sub-versions, by the end of 2026.
- Doesn’t count if someone releases a model with a number that isn’t a version number. “Grok 69” would not count. “GPT-6-preview” would count.
- The model must be publicly accessible.
- If there’s a tie, resolves evenly split among tied companies.
- Update 2025-11-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Version number comparison: If there is ambiguity in comparing version numbers (e.g., 5.9 vs 5.11), the creator will ask each model how to resolve the market and resolve to the average of their opinions.
